2021中美重開機兵推系列八：胡振東》美中既合作又競爭

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參與中時兵推「2021中美重開機」的學者們，左起：方恩格先生、胡振東先生、淡志隆教授，擔任美國角色；中間：張競博士、戎撫天總主筆、黃介正會長，擔任管制組 ；右方：介文汲大使、張登及教授、亓樂義先生，擔任大陸角色。最右者爲中國時報執行副總主筆陳琴富。

此次針對拜登政府的美中關係所設計的政軍兵棋推演，堪稱正合時宜。在經歷了四年的川普政府之後，一般咸信美國與中國將會尋求雙邊關係的「新常態」。

川普總統確實揭露了許多中國以不公平手段，對美國的經濟造成傷害，並對美國國家安全造成威脅。即使如此，中國大陸本身的作爲，也促成了美國人民對於中國的負面觀感。此種負面的觀感，將會型塑拜登政府如何「正常化」與中國的關係。基於上述的認知，拜登實無法對中國大陸示弱。

另一方面，習近平可能認爲美國的政權輪替，爲一種雙邊關係的重開機，並且推動一種有利於中國的「新常態」。最近中國針對臺灣升高緊張的行動，可能就是基於此種目的。

在兵棋推演過程中，扮演中國組的專家學者表現堪稱優異。想當然耳，中方自然會要求美國遵守中國的「一中原則」，然而美方也將會重申其對華政策從未改變，並再度表明遵行美國的「一中政策」。此種政治賽局自從1979年以來從未停歇，在拜登總統時期也將不會改變。

中國的「一中原則」與美國的「一中政策」之根本差異，在於中國的「一中原則」將臺灣視爲中華人民共和國的一部分；而美國的「一中政策」則認爲臺灣的主權尚未決定。美國接受中國可有其「一中原則」，但並未承認其對臺灣的主權主張，而僅奉行本身的「一中政策」。

在形式上經過預期的「一中」過招後，中國預期將會強力要求美國改正過去的錯誤，以使雙邊關係迴歸正常。另一方面，美國可能會尋找可獲致協議的「易摘果實」，然後再處理更棘手的問題。

美中比較可能達成協議的議題包括：調整貿易政策，使進口稅與貿易限制在短期內可望達成協議。疫情防控合作則爲另一可達成的議題。當然中國可能不願揭露太多最初在武漢處理疫情的狀況，或是病毒的可能來源；但是在未來的疫情防控合作，則對美中雙方都有利。

拜登總統將環境保護列爲優先。環保合作自比人權議題更能達成協議，因環境也是中國一項緊迫議題。環保合作也可給予美中正面的形象。雙方重開駐成都和休士頓的總領館，也是正常化的一部分，依據外交規則與領務活動應該辦得到。

至於重建軍事互信，中國可能要求獲邀參加環太平洋演習，美方或可正面迴應。中國參與環太演習中的人道及災害救援，對美國及盟邦屬於低風險項目。相對地，美國可能要求對中國擴大軍艦訪問。

美中談不起來的議題包括：中國將完全拒絕對新疆、西藏及香港的人權討論。相同地，中國也不會在南海主權議題上讓步。另方面，美國也不願進行任何有關終止對臺支持的討論。美方也不會停止在南海及太平洋的軍力部署。

在此美國政權轉換時期，臺灣展現其對區域和平與穩定的貢獻，至爲重要。「實力達成和平」是臺灣重要的座右銘。保持堅強以嚇阻任何武力改變臺灣生活方式的企圖，保持堅強以使臺海兩岸的兩個中國政府與人民，得以獲得和平解決爭議的機緣。

（系列完）

（作者爲美國國防部中臺蒙處前資深處長，本文以英文寫作，由本報翻譯）

作者原文：

This political-military wargame on possible path of US-China relationship under President Biden was timely. After 4 years of Trump Presidency, it is expected both the United States and China will try to find a “new normal” for the relationship. While Trump had brought into light many aspects of China’s unfair practices which damaged the US economy and threatened US national security, China’s own activities have also contributed to the negative perceptions the American people has on China. This negative perception will shape what Biden can and will do to “normalize” relation with China. Under this atmosphere, Biden cannot afford to show weakness towards China.

Xi Jing-ping, on the other hand, might see the change of administration in the US as an opportunity to reset the relationship and force a “new normal” that is more favorable to China. The recent activities to heightened tension around Taiwan might have that purpose in mind.

During the wargame, I thought the team that played China did an excellent job. Certainly, China would demand the United States to adhere to China’s “One China Principle”. And, the United States is expected to reiterate its policy has not changed and restate its adherence to the United States’ “One China Policy”. This political game has been on-going since 1979. It is not expected to change under President Biden.

The fundamental difference between China’s “One China Principle” and United States’ “One China Policy” is that while “One China Principle” states Taiwan is a part of the People’s Republic of China, under the United States’ “One China Policy”, the sovereignty of Taiwan is yet to be determined. The United States accepts China has its “One China Principle” but the United States does not recognize its claim of sovereignty over Taiwan. The United States will follow its own “One China Policy”.

After the expected “One China” formality, it is presumed China will come in strong to demand United States to change its mistakes from the past as a part of normalization of relationship. United States, on the other hand, is likely to look for the “low hanging fruit” to build on agreements that is achievable then move towards more difficult issues.

So, what are those issues that US and China might be able to agree on?

Adjustments in trade policy where agreements on importation duties, and trade restrictions might be achievable in the near term. Cooperation in pandemic response might be another area that is achievable. Certainly, China might not want to reveal too much of its initial COVID response in Wuhan and the possible source of the virus. Cooperation based on future response might be mutually beneficial to China and the United States.

Environmental protection is a priority item for President Biden. Cooperation on environmental protection might also be easier to achieve then topics like Human Rights. For China, environment is an urgent issue that needs to be addressed. Cooperation in environment protection will also provide a positive image for China and the United States.

Reopening of the consulates in Chendu and Houston could be a part of the normalization. It should be easily achievable, with the condition of adherence to the diplomatic rules on consulate activities.

On reinstatement of military confidence building measures, China might request future invitation to RIMPAC exercise. This is also an area the United States might be able to provide a positive response. China’s participation in Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief aspects of the RIMPAC should be of low risk to the US and its allies. In return, the US might request expanded port calls in China for US Navy ships.

What are some of the issues I believe that are “none-starters” for bilateral discussions? I believe China will totally reject any US effort to discuss human rights in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong. Similarly, China is not expected to back down from its claim of sovereignty of South China Sea. On the other hand, the US will not entertain any discussion on terminating its support for Taiwan. The US will not stop its continued presence in the Pacific, including the South China Sea.

What should Taiwan do during this time of transition? I believe it is always important for Taiwan to demonstrate its contribution to regional peace and stability. “Peace through Strength” is an important motto for Taiwan to follow. Stay strong to deter any effort to change Taiwan’s way of life through force. Stay strong so that there is a chance for peaceful resolution of the differences between the two Chinese governments and their people across the Taiwan Strait.