紐時賞析／乾燥程度逾40年之最 美國東北部野火危機愈演愈烈

簡寧斯溪野火在紐約州格林伍德湖延燒，附近有許多住家，攝於11月10日。紐約地區的野火雖不太可能變得和西部一樣多，但居民得爲更多幹旱做準備。（紐約時報）

Wildfire Risk Only Growing For Northeast

美國東北部野火危機愈演愈烈

Rocky and Ren Hazelman run a chicken farm in West Milford, New Jersey, about 10 miles south from the Jennings Creek wildfire along the state’s border with New York.

洛基和雷恩．哈茲曼在新澤西州的西密爾福經營一間養雞場，那裡距離沿着該州與紐約州交界延燒的簡寧斯溪野火，只在往南約10英里處。

Their 2,000 chickens require about 150 gallons of water daily, and the couple usually has no trouble collecting the needed rainwater for the job.

他們的2000只雞每天需要約150加侖用水，通常這對夫妻收集這個工作所需的雨水並無困難。

But that is no longer possible: An extraordinarily dry fall has brought some of the worst drought conditions in the region in decades.

但這已不復可能：異常乾燥的秋季，已爲該區域帶來數十年來最嚴重的若干乾旱情況。

The weather extremes caused by global warming, which are making it harder for the Hazelmans to tend to their flock, are the same ones draining reservoirs and sparking wildfires across the Northeast, like the 5,300-acre Jennings blaze, which is now mostly contained, down the road from their farm.

全球暖化造成的極端天氣現象，正讓哈茲曼夫婦更難照顧他們的雞羣，也同樣使得水庫枯竭，並在美國東北部各地引發野火，就像蔓延5300英畝的簡寧斯大火，燒到他們養雞場所在那條路上，現已大致受到控制。

The Northeast will almost certainly never experience the scale of wildfires seen in more rural Western states. But experts say that the region should prepare for more periodic droughts, which will increase the risk of fires, because of the weather-distorting effects of greenhouse gases.

美國東北部幾乎確定永遠不會歷經較偏遠西部幾州那種規模的野火。但專家說，由於溫室氣體扭曲天氣的效應，該區域應爲更多將增加起火風險的週期性乾旱做準備。

Sudden and extreme shifts from wet to dry seasons, which will become increasingly common as the world heats up, experts said, feed a cycle of vegetation growth that then dries out rapidly, providing ample fuel for fires.

專家說，從雨季到乾季的突然與極端轉換，將隨着全球增溫變得日益常見；這會激發一輪植被生長然後迅速乾枯，爲大火提供充分的燃料。

“We started the year with the wettest conditions in 40-plus years, which made for a lot of lush vegetation,” said Bill Kirk, the CEO of Weathertrends360, a company that provides long-term weather forecasts. But since June, he said, the region has been the driest its been in more than four decades. Kirk predicted that dry conditions in the Northeast would continue into 2025.

提供長期天氣預報的公司Weathertrends360執行長柯克說，「我們今年一開始就碰上40多年來最溼潤的天候，這造就了大量繁茂的植被」。但他說，自從6月，該區域乾燥程度來到逾40年之最。柯克預測，東北部的乾燥情況將持續到2025年。

Currently, more than two-thirds of the United States is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, and about 40% of the country — more than 149 million acres — is in a drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

目前，美國全境超過三分之二正歷經異常乾燥情況，且根據美國乾旱監測中心，大約4成美國土地正處於乾旱，面積超過1.49億英畝。

“The weather whiplash we’ve seen is more likely to happen in a warmer world,” said Matthew Rodell, a hydrologist with the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. Rising heat, fueled by burning fossil fuels, can supercharge weather events — including storms and droughts — making them more intense, he said.

位於馬里蘭州格林貝的美國太空總署哥達德太空飛行中心水文學家羅德爾說，「我們現已看見的天氣劇烈擺盪，更可能發生在較暖的世界」。他說，燃燒化石燃料引發的高溫上升，可能加劇風暴、乾旱在內的天氣事件，使其變得更強烈。

文／Hilary Howard　譯／高詣軒