紐時賞析／「太陽地球工程」恐帶來不為人知危險 美建立預警系統偵測

一顆氣球在紐西蘭南島東南部勞德被施放，這個行動是全球大氣監視系統的一部分。（紐約時報）

The U.S. Is Building an Early Warning System to Detect Geoengineering

美國正建立預警系統 偵測太陽地球工程

In a guarded compound at the foot of the Rockies, government scientists are working on a new kind of global alarm system: one that can detect if another country, or maybe just an adventurous billionaire, tries to dim the sun.

在落磯山脈山腳下一間守備森嚴的院落，美國政府科學家正研究一種新型全球警報系統：這種系統可以偵測是否有另一個國家，或者也許只是一個喜歡冒險的億萬富翁，試圖使太陽變暗。

Every few weeks, researchers in Boulder, Colorado, release a balloon that rises 17 miles into the sky. Similar balloons are launched with less frequency from sites across the world. They make up the building blocks of a system that would alert U.S. scientists to geoengineering.

每隔數週，科羅拉多州波德的研究員就會施放一顆氣球，讓它飛昇到約17英里高空。類似的氣球也以較低頻率在世界各地施放。它們構成一套系統的重要組件，這套系統會提醒美國科學家注意地球工程。

As the planet continues to heat up, the idea of intentionally trying to block solar radiation — sometimes called solar radiation modification, solar geoengineering or climate intervention — is gaining attention. Governments, universities, investors and environmentalists are pouring millions of dollars into research and modeling of geoengineering systems.

隨着地球持續升溫，有意阻止太陽輻射的想法正引起關注，這類想法有時稱爲太陽輻射緩和、太陽地球工程或氣候干預。政府、大學、投資人和環保人士正投入數百萬美元，用於地球工程系統研究和建立模型。

It could be a relatively quick way to cool the planet. But it could also unleash untold dangers.

這可能是冷卻地球相對較快的方法，但可能會帶來不爲人知的危險。

Many worry that solar geoengineering could have unintended consequences, shattering regional weather patterns and damaging everything from agriculture to local economies. And the first steps could be done quietly, by a rogue actor or another nation operating without any regulations or controls.

許多人擔心，太陽地球工程可能產生意想不到的後果，嚴重破壞區域天氣模式，損害農業和地區經濟等一切事物。而且最初步驟可能在沒有任何法規或管制的情況下，由不法份子或另一個國家悄悄完成。

So the United States is building a system that would allow it to determine if and when others may be trying to tamper with the Earth’s thermostat.

因此，美國正在建立一個系統，使其能查明其他人是否及何時可能試圖蓄意破壞地球的恆溫機制。

“It’s some of the most important stratospheric science going on in the world today,” said David Fahey, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Chemical Sciences Laboratory, which is building the network of balloon sentries.

美國國家海洋暨大氣總署化學科學實驗室正在建立氣球崗哨網。實驗室主任費希表示：「這是當今世上最重要的平流層科學。」

Both NOAA and NASA have satellites that can detect large quantities of aerosols in the atmosphere, but they can’t pick up smaller amounts. That’s where the balloons come in. Each one carries a 6-pound contraption, filled with wires and tubes. The device measures tiny airborne particles, or aerosols. A jump could indicate the presence of an unusual amount of aerosols in the stratosphere, possibly to deflect some of the sun’s heat back into space.

美國國家海洋暨大氣總署和美國太空總署都有衛星，能偵測大氣中大量的氣溶膠，但無法捕捉較少數量的氣溶膠。這就是氣球派上用場的地方。每顆氣球攜帶重六磅、裡面裝滿電線和管子的裝置。這個裝置會測量空氣中的微小顆粒，或稱氣溶膠。一個突然跳動可能表示平流層中存在異常數量的氣溶膠，有可能將一些太陽的熱量移回太空。

Fahey’s team is building the capacity to detect, track and understand the effects of any unusual aerosol release.

費希的團隊建立的能力，可偵測、追蹤和理解任何異常氣溶膠釋放帶來的影響。

Researchers stress that these detection efforts are still in their infancy. As of now, they believe that solar geoengineering has only been attempted at a very small scale, despite the claims of conspiracy theorists.

研究人員強調，這些偵測工作尚處於起步階段。截至目前，他們認爲太陽地球工程只能以非常小的規模進行嘗試，儘管陰謀論者有些說法。

But the work taking place demonstrates how geoengineering has morphed from the stuff of science fiction to a source of growing concern for the government.

但正在進行的工作顯示，地球工程已從科幻小說內容，轉變成政府日益憂心的問題來源。

文／Christopher Flavelle　譯／羅方妤